Friday, May 8, 2009

Pakistan - at the verge of chaos? by Nadia Khan

There are many elements and factors making the situation worse for Pakistan especially in FATA and Swat divisions.

Double game of US or Allied forces: Taliban has emerged in those areas and now fighting with Pak Army fiercely. Many times analysts have asked this question as how a professionally trained army is not able to cope up the situation with few hundred Talibans? There are hundreds of causalities at the army front, probably more damage than Taliban fighters, why? Another point, as how come Taliban forces are able to have such large ammunition to fight back against heavy artillery? There might be some channels from where it is being supplied to Taliban fighters? In a very casual way, Pakistan interior minister has said that, “Arms are being supplied to Pakistani Taliban from Afghanistan.” This is vague statement, perhaps a way to point to Karzai govt, as by and large Afghanistan is under the control of US forces and any arm supply from there should have the patronage of US rather than weakest Karzai govt. If so then the double game of US is evident. If not then Pakistani authorities have to identify as who is power force behind Taliban fighters?

Multiple faces of Taliban: So far both International and local media is publishing news about Taliban, it is still a mystery that “Taliban - who they are?” Is this only Sufi Muhammad who is representing Taliban in Pakistan, as many political leaders assume? This doesn’t look true as the Taliban’s of Darra Adam Khayel or North or South Waziristan are different in approach, perception, and war tactics than those waging war in Swat or Malakand or Buneer divisions presently. Sufi Muhammad claims to be the head of TNSM, an independent organisation than TTP whereas his son in law, Fazl ullallah wasn’t involved in any Jihadi activities against USSR. So there’s a need to identify to segregate who are these Talibans and then only a better strategy of waging war could be worked out against them. At peoples’ front, it is clear that Taliban, who so are they, are not under the influence of majority of Pakistani Ulema, especially Deubandi school of thought as perceived before.

Rouge elements in Pakistan establishment: Pervaiz Musharraf had played a role that had created doubts in everyone’s mind even his closest ally US had accused him of playing double games. Within Pakistan, he had used security agencies in kidnapping innocent Pakistanis and then handing them over to US authorities for few dollars. Politically, he had orchestrated election victory for religious forces to gain two advantages – one to leverage MMA for legitimization of his army rule (through 17th amendment) within the country and second at abroad by scaring US or West, as if he is unsuccessful then Pakistan would be taken over by religious bigots. Musharraf’s this strategy worked out till then West & US had realized & started talking to Benazir Bhutto, a liberal face and a political power, who could enforce US line of action. When President Zardari tried to replicate the same strategy he wasn’t able to get support from the military establishment and few elements continued to play against him. Drone attacks & their increased frequency are basically a sort of no-trust onto Pakistan government or military establishment in cleansing religious forces, just because US fears that some elements in Pakistan are playing same old game of double standards.

Simplicity of Sufi Muhammad’s Islamic version: The simplicity of Sufi Muhammad is also instrumental in creating chaos for Islam and Pakistan. He is a simple man, who doesn’t know beyond the boundaries of his home town. He is aware of only Afghan or Tribal culture where system, courts, education, constitution, policing, curbing crime & social justice – all have been carried out through jirga or grand-jirga and decision would be made by elders then & there without challenge. His statements about Quran & constitution are logically making sense as if you asked any Muslim, “which book is more sacred – Holy Quran or Constitution of Pakistan?” The answer is obvious however the major piece which Sufi Muhammad is missing is support from other religious scholars or at least from the school of thought which he practices – Deubandi for all his interpretations of Quran & Sunnah. If not, then he might not be the right Islamic force who could do anything positive as per the guidance of divine religion.

Exile-Nationalist leaders’ agenda: International players are keenly watching the recent developments is Pakistan with a view that “who would rule the country?” in next few years? If there would be any chance of religious forces to run the country then International players, with India hiding behind US, are setting up strategic policies to use nationalist leaders living in self-exile against the wishes of people of Pakistan like it had happened in Algeria. Probably the only change here would be the role of exile leaders.

Zardari-led weak PPP federal government: The weakest democratic government of PPP led by President Zardari is yet to gain it’s strengthen than we started hearing the news of its dismissal in foreign & local press. Some Pakistani analysts say that “it’s a matter of few weeks to have a new government in Pakistan.” This is also adding more value to Pakistan’s present chaos and making a war-like-situation more vulnerable for those living outside Pakistan. Within this context, the fake propaganda of “taking over nuclear arsenal by radical Islamist forces” from US and West is serving only the purpose of enemies of the country.


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